I'm a full-time investor and a former high-yield fixed income analyst. Last time, my job was to help ultra-rich clients make money from the best bond ideas. I’ve lived through bond market cycles across emerging markets. Today, I manage my mom's and my own money.

This is what I’ve learnt investing so far...

1. The AI bubble isn’t in the technology. The internet has changed our lives. Instead, the bubble is in our herding behaviour, which leads to investors pushing up prices irresponsibly.
2. I prefer using the Shiller PE ratio, it’s a cyclically adjusted PE ratio that smooths the earnings cycle over 10-year periods - and it’s at an all-time high of 40x.
3. Gold isn’t going to make you rich. But I believe it’s a “chaos hedge”. It reduces the chance that everything in our portfolio goes wrong at the same time.
4. The bond market sees danger first. As a former fixed income analyst, I look at downside risks first, before paying attention to the upside.
5. Some days I hate writing. But I write because I wasn’t an A student so writing forces me to be a better thinker, a more thoughtful reader and confident investor.
6. Markets are strongest when they are most broad and weakest when only a handful of a few stocks carry them.
7. Even after 16 years investing, I’m still wrong about things, like Elite Commercial REIT and IREIT Global to name a few. My highest conviction Singapore REIT picks are here.​
8. Last time, high-yield China property bonds were considered “low beta”, until the entire market crashed.
9. You can’t invest near retirement with a 25 year old mindset. When you’re retiring or are in retirement, your utmost priority is to generate safe, predictable income. You cannot afford to take huge risks.
10. Don‘t be afraid of changing investing styles. Warren Buffett only bought his first stock compounder when he was 58 years old. My investing styles have evolved from trading to deep value to long-term fundamental investing and dividends.
11. I used to believe I had to "actively trade" to make money, like running on a hamster wheel. But real money is made by being patient and thinking differently.
12. Since 2023, many investors have avoided China. Some of my best winners came from buying cheap, unloved and high-quality stocks in China and Hong Kong.
13. ​Singapore banks are not “riskless” assets​
14. Different stocks behave differently at certain periods. Some stocks will outperform the other at one period, and underperform in another period. That’s why I diversify.
15. After six years in banking, I learnt no one looks after your money better than yourself
16. Here’s what most bankers won’t tell you - the financial industry runs on “asset gathering”. The more assets they manage, the higher the fees they collect. Whether you make money or not.
17. The ultra-rich protect their wealth through diversification. And they accumulate for passive income
18. AI amplifies your technical expertise. It doesn't replace it. For example, deeper domain knowledge leads to better prompts in your stock research.
19. Focus on businesses that compound their capital and reward shareholders. Run away when management wants to “build an empire”
20. The price you pay for a stock matters. I still don’t understand people who buy stocks without thinking about valuation.
21. In investing, you don’t have to be right all the time. You just need to avoid the mistakes that you cannot recover from - I've avoided Hyflux default. I've avoided China's property debt crash.​
22. The stock market is not your life. It’s only a part of your life. No matter how much money you’re making, nothing can replace our family, friends, and loved ones.
23. Analysts love to make bullish calls
24. Fund managers’ performance can’t beat the market not because they are lousy. Their performance can’t beat the market because of the fees they charge.
25. “Free-money” era of new zero interest rates is over
26. Don’t need to be perfect in investing. You really only need to be right 60% of the time.
27. All you have to do is lose a massive principal once. And it’s a lot more painful than compounding an "adequate" return.
28. Focus on dividend payers narrows your investment universe into a safer, more manageable selection of stocks.
29. I realized teaching makes me a better investor (sharing about Singapore banks with CNA TV producers two weeks ago)

Have a great Sunday!

- Willie Keng, CFA

Founder, DividendTitan.com

P.S. On my way to the airport. Will be in Hangzhou, China with my laptop for the next couple of days - if there's any place or food you highly recommend, let me know by hitting "reply"!