With the Christmas holidays just round the corner, one of the many things that popped into my head is this – shopping. And festive shopping is one of the clearest ways to explain how to get started investing.

You see, knowing what’s happening in our daily lives matters far more than geopolitical drama – whether President Donald Trump will restrict chip exports to China, whether he wants to fire the Fed Chairman, or even political fights over islands in Asia.

Instead, I’d rather spend time watching: how many people walk into a Uniqlo shop, how long is the queue of restaurants over this holiday season, how crowded supermarkets are and how many people are buying beers from the convenience store at the corner of my home late at night.

In other words, especially during this Christmas season, I want to know what people are shopping for. And not get too concerned whether there will be a full-blown world war again.

Back in 2015, amidst the stock market going berserk over Brexit, fear of a "slowdown” in China’s GDP, the first Trump elections… I was busy walking around (yes at first, I felt odd walking around without really buying anything) CapitaMall Trust’s Junction 8, Raffles City and Plaza Singapura.

I even made a trip all the way down to Fraser's Centrepoint Trusts’ Causeway Point. Why? I wanted to make sure these shopping malls were still packed with shoppers.

This gave me the confidence to buy great businesses when their share prices are down.

When you start investing in an anxious world today, the noise in the news can feel overwhelming. Yet, if there’s one common sense thing to grab on, it’s this last vestige of belief you’ll need – shopping always beats politics in investing.

Over the last 20 years, Singapore’s consumption spending has climbed to new highs – hitting a record of over $200 billion.

Even in recent quarters, spending has stayed resilient despite all the political uncertainty we read about across the world. According to Singapore Department of Statistics, Singapore's Private Consumption Expenditure showed solid growth in 2025, with a 4% y/y increase in 3Q2025, following a 4.1% rise in the previous quarter. This showed resilient domestic demand supported by rising incomes. Today, Singapore's consumption spending continues to contribute to a major driver of our island city's growth.

This means, it’s you and me going out to shop and spend – including this Christmas season – that drives the growth of great businesses.

Here's the thing: Nobody can predict the world with a modicum of certainty. Not analysts. Not economists. Not you. Not me.

But nothing matters more than what people are spending. And if you invest in great, durable businesses that sell things that people love to buy, you don’t have to make predictions at all. People will shop for their daily needs, whether there’s political fighting or not.

So don’t get trapped by the tyranny of financial media and political noises. I'd focus on the more important thing.

Sometimes, investing can be simple.

Willie Keng, CFA

Founder, dividendtitan.com

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